Post by somerandomuser on May 18, 2021 16:33:31 GMT
We are all searching for answers, I have been thinking on how to increase one's chances of success of documentation perhaps and encounter or at least getting more data, useful actual data. Let's just say right now this is theory nothing more just based on a few things I am noticing.
First I have been thinking of multiple project but I wanted to just propose a couple which tie in together. The first being using eyewitness encounters and sightings to get an idea of daily/weekly/monthly distance traveled. What does this matter? Well we all have a strong hunch or guess that there is a migration pattern as we will see some areas pickup in activity for a few months then drop off but some areas might be year around for year upon year.
What will be looked at? This is not a comprehensive or exhaustive list and anyone is welcome to add other metrics which should be tracked:
Sightings:
Location (coordinates) (state/county)
Date/Time (time (1-5 scale))
Weather Conditions (eg sunny/night/cloudy .. autmn/summer/winter..etc) (1-5 scale based on most common conditions)
Solar Activity(new)
Geography ( 1-5 scale based upon sightings and where they occur the most eg forest or desert scrub)
Identifying features on tracks/crature sighted (eg. deformation/injury color of creature/scars..etc)
Temperature during sighting (1-5 scale) (Temp during day & night recorded)
Temperature by week/month for sighting area when there is activty (used for prediction)
Precipitation during sighting (24 hr period 1-5 scale)
Precipitation by month even day for locations (prediction)
Sighting area local fauna and plants both edible and non-edible
News Reports (eg "werewolf sighting" or "unidentified animal attack" (eg.NC school teacher))
Human Encroachment (Might mean territory changes or more conflict)
Other (Spiritual/Occult object or other cult relation .. might be woo but I think it's worth checking)
Sighting areas should be kept tabs on for example if a disease breaks out among the deer population for that location and we do not have sightings using the data gathered to figure out rate of travel a new area which similarly matches in geography and climate might be pinpointed and if sightings confirm the guess as to where the creature may end up it can be less guess and more certain. This phase may take realisticaly 2 years maybe more, the idea is with most datapoints the chances of success go up. For example the wildebeest during migration does 480-300 mile trip every year depending on the rains so it's between Dec - Mar (4 months) or May to Nov (7 months) so an average speed 300 = 7r => 300/7=r => 42.85=r so 42.85 would be how many miles are traveled each month. With this information one can figure out within a 50 mile radius where the wildebeest probably are, the same thing can work for other migrating creatures.
(DiRT formula (D=Distance i= is to make it a word R= Rate (speed) and T=Time))
Weights or the scale will be a way to have the most favorable variables in place based upon sightings reported and using that information to further chances during phase two and three. This can allow for faster analysis on the most common and favorable variables in multiple sightings thus translating into giving a better chance of success.
Something which should be considered is reaching out to other's to compile reports, basically everyone cooperates and gets access to the most recent data, meanwhile publicly there can be data released by state/county maybe even date(s) and probably 1 year behind. Also anyone participating get's access to source code say for filtering audio and other things. Why make it public without the nity grity details and the most recent information? Well to notify the public keeping them aware of possible creatures being sighted by their neighbors, this literally may save lives hence why exact coordinates are not disclosed in order to hamper or prevent people from doing something which is dangerous. Any publicly submitted data will be a seperate database from private databases just because authenticity cannot be verified of a sighting but I am thinking if data is submitted it should be anonymously, but then again to prevent multiple spam postings there will be an IP verification perhaps checked against a database of VPN servers of various VPN/Proxy providers . I think that the plan would be using a website where people who are researchers get an individual login's can append data using a form to a sightings database. This database will be used to compile a more interacrate database with the "weighted" values discussed above.
Second sighting areas that have constant or high volumes of activity can have passive listening devices which if analyzed may give an idea as to number of individuals in an area. The devices yes will cost money but we are not there yet, so let's not jump the gun first we need to collect sightings to pinpoint the most fruitful areas for this second phase. This phase we will place devices which are collected at the end of maybe 1 month (more sample(s) and higher chances of hearing varying calls which can be analyzed and further scanned for in audio previously compiled and now can be used in other very active locations), perhaps put out a few times and automate filtering of the noise once audio files are copied to focus in on certain frequencies suspected to be of the creature(s). This is a technique used by scientists which uses bioacoustics to determine a population size of animals in an area of study. Another idea is also using the passive listening devices to triangulate where a possible sound has originated from, which perhaps it maybe possible to visit the area or use other methods to scout the area. If one is to hear a specific call weekly from the edge's of a hotspot then we may deduce that there is a "perimeter walk" which these creatures go on to check for intruders. Also this can help identify the extent of a creatures territory in addition to better understanding the habits of the creature(s) in question. For example if we have no calls during the day and only at dusk/night we can deduce that it is rather nocturnal but if we have calls from certain individuals during the day and others sharing the same territory during the night we can guess that there are "shifts" setup to maintain security in a territory to ensure that an unwanted visitor does not sneak up on a sleeping pack. We might even discover that there is a "no mans land" between rival packs where sub-adult's reside. Another idea here is using of sound detection arrays perhaps transmitting when sounds of a certain decibal is encountered by one of the devices in the array. I am unsure as to the legallity but we can also create an FM transmitter to monitor either the sound or detection of sound I don't want to get anyone in trouble but it was a thought I had also. (Maybe someone here has some knowledge and can point me in the right direction regarding this option. )
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12001
Third phase (if it gets there) boots on the ground 1 week based on collected data and the most promising area, it might be literally one hotspot with year around activity/sightings this will probably yield the best and most reliable data. All the data gathered in the pervious two phases will be used in order to further enhance chances for success. For example if the location has a drought large bodies of water nearby and nearby percipitation combined with phase one's average travel distance can help further narrow a search area.
So in the end what does everyone think? Is this sound methodology to increase one's chances of success also are there other factors which you would include and why? I plan on expanding on "Phase Two" where a passive microphone setup (equipment DIY and bought) and sound detection which will trigger at a setting of your choosing(mainly DIY), I think I am going to try to make it the most economical where one maybe looking at 20 dollars but also quite a bit of soldering (still unsure how much DIY will be focused on). I think that people can go and just enact phase 1 or maybe they stop at phase two basically they don't have to go all the way through to phase three, I thought about this being that I am busy with work and honestly getting away for a week would be rather impossible with all my responsibilities.
Now that I think of it this might be more research related and if it needs to be moved that is fine.
First I have been thinking of multiple project but I wanted to just propose a couple which tie in together. The first being using eyewitness encounters and sightings to get an idea of daily/weekly/monthly distance traveled. What does this matter? Well we all have a strong hunch or guess that there is a migration pattern as we will see some areas pickup in activity for a few months then drop off but some areas might be year around for year upon year.
What will be looked at? This is not a comprehensive or exhaustive list and anyone is welcome to add other metrics which should be tracked:
Sightings:
Location (coordinates) (state/county)
Date/Time (time (1-5 scale))
Weather Conditions (eg sunny/night/cloudy .. autmn/summer/winter..etc) (1-5 scale based on most common conditions)
Solar Activity(new)
Geography ( 1-5 scale based upon sightings and where they occur the most eg forest or desert scrub)
Identifying features on tracks/crature sighted (eg. deformation/injury color of creature/scars..etc)
Temperature during sighting (1-5 scale) (Temp during day & night recorded)
Temperature by week/month for sighting area when there is activty (used for prediction)
Precipitation during sighting (24 hr period 1-5 scale)
Precipitation by month even day for locations (prediction)
Sighting area local fauna and plants both edible and non-edible
News Reports (eg "werewolf sighting" or "unidentified animal attack" (eg.NC school teacher))
Human Encroachment (Might mean territory changes or more conflict)
Other (Spiritual/Occult object or other cult relation .. might be woo but I think it's worth checking)
Sighting areas should be kept tabs on for example if a disease breaks out among the deer population for that location and we do not have sightings using the data gathered to figure out rate of travel a new area which similarly matches in geography and climate might be pinpointed and if sightings confirm the guess as to where the creature may end up it can be less guess and more certain. This phase may take realisticaly 2 years maybe more, the idea is with most datapoints the chances of success go up. For example the wildebeest during migration does 480-300 mile trip every year depending on the rains so it's between Dec - Mar (4 months) or May to Nov (7 months) so an average speed 300 = 7r => 300/7=r => 42.85=r so 42.85 would be how many miles are traveled each month. With this information one can figure out within a 50 mile radius where the wildebeest probably are, the same thing can work for other migrating creatures.
(DiRT formula (D=Distance i= is to make it a word R= Rate (speed) and T=Time))
Weights or the scale will be a way to have the most favorable variables in place based upon sightings reported and using that information to further chances during phase two and three. This can allow for faster analysis on the most common and favorable variables in multiple sightings thus translating into giving a better chance of success.
Something which should be considered is reaching out to other's to compile reports, basically everyone cooperates and gets access to the most recent data, meanwhile publicly there can be data released by state/county maybe even date(s) and probably 1 year behind. Also anyone participating get's access to source code say for filtering audio and other things. Why make it public without the nity grity details and the most recent information? Well to notify the public keeping them aware of possible creatures being sighted by their neighbors, this literally may save lives hence why exact coordinates are not disclosed in order to hamper or prevent people from doing something which is dangerous. Any publicly submitted data will be a seperate database from private databases just because authenticity cannot be verified of a sighting but I am thinking if data is submitted it should be anonymously, but then again to prevent multiple spam postings there will be an IP verification perhaps checked against a database of VPN servers of various VPN/Proxy providers . I think that the plan would be using a website where people who are researchers get an individual login's can append data using a form to a sightings database. This database will be used to compile a more interacrate database with the "weighted" values discussed above.
Second sighting areas that have constant or high volumes of activity can have passive listening devices which if analyzed may give an idea as to number of individuals in an area. The devices yes will cost money but we are not there yet, so let's not jump the gun first we need to collect sightings to pinpoint the most fruitful areas for this second phase. This phase we will place devices which are collected at the end of maybe 1 month (more sample(s) and higher chances of hearing varying calls which can be analyzed and further scanned for in audio previously compiled and now can be used in other very active locations), perhaps put out a few times and automate filtering of the noise once audio files are copied to focus in on certain frequencies suspected to be of the creature(s). This is a technique used by scientists which uses bioacoustics to determine a population size of animals in an area of study. Another idea is also using the passive listening devices to triangulate where a possible sound has originated from, which perhaps it maybe possible to visit the area or use other methods to scout the area. If one is to hear a specific call weekly from the edge's of a hotspot then we may deduce that there is a "perimeter walk" which these creatures go on to check for intruders. Also this can help identify the extent of a creatures territory in addition to better understanding the habits of the creature(s) in question. For example if we have no calls during the day and only at dusk/night we can deduce that it is rather nocturnal but if we have calls from certain individuals during the day and others sharing the same territory during the night we can guess that there are "shifts" setup to maintain security in a territory to ensure that an unwanted visitor does not sneak up on a sleeping pack. We might even discover that there is a "no mans land" between rival packs where sub-adult's reside. Another idea here is using of sound detection arrays perhaps transmitting when sounds of a certain decibal is encountered by one of the devices in the array. I am unsure as to the legallity but we can also create an FM transmitter to monitor either the sound or detection of sound I don't want to get anyone in trouble but it was a thought I had also. (Maybe someone here has some knowledge and can point me in the right direction regarding this option. )
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12001
Third phase (if it gets there) boots on the ground 1 week based on collected data and the most promising area, it might be literally one hotspot with year around activity/sightings this will probably yield the best and most reliable data. All the data gathered in the pervious two phases will be used in order to further enhance chances for success. For example if the location has a drought large bodies of water nearby and nearby percipitation combined with phase one's average travel distance can help further narrow a search area.
So in the end what does everyone think? Is this sound methodology to increase one's chances of success also are there other factors which you would include and why? I plan on expanding on "Phase Two" where a passive microphone setup (equipment DIY and bought) and sound detection which will trigger at a setting of your choosing(mainly DIY), I think I am going to try to make it the most economical where one maybe looking at 20 dollars but also quite a bit of soldering (still unsure how much DIY will be focused on). I think that people can go and just enact phase 1 or maybe they stop at phase two basically they don't have to go all the way through to phase three, I thought about this being that I am busy with work and honestly getting away for a week would be rather impossible with all my responsibilities.
Now that I think of it this might be more research related and if it needs to be moved that is fine.
